Gibran's blog

With so much fuss going on recently about how it is mathematically almost impossible for either of the Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, to reach the “magical number” of delegates in order to become the party’s nominee, the decision-breaker is shifting to the “super delegates”, raising a scenario in which the Democratic nominee could end up being one that is not backed by the majority of the voters.

Currently, Monday, 18 February 2008, Barack Obama has an overall lead in delegates, especially in the “pledged delegates” who are a result of the “popular” vote, while Hillary Clinton leads on the super delegates (influential party members). A couple of special considerations to complicate even more the situation: Florida and Michigan’s delegates are currently not being taken into account due to the party’s rules, and that could spark even more debate in this election process.

All of this is shaping a picture which, if it continues, could result in a divided, fractured and deteriorated Democratic Party, opening the general election to an independent like NY Mayor Bloomberg or the Republican’s nominee, John McCain.

Barack Obama has been gathering such momentum, as described by not only his campaign or the political pundits, but even by the Clinton’s campaign, that it’s increasingly hard to compete against a “movement” versus a candidate, which seems to be more and more the case for Obama.

This brings me to the title: in a supposed scenario under which Hillary would win the Democratic nomination based on a majority of super delegates, and Obama would be left out but with support by a “majority of the bases”, would it make sense to take the current momentum and vast national support for Obama, and continue the road to the presidential candidacy as an independent candidate?

In my personal view: Yes.

First, because on a personal note, I truly believe there is a desperate need for profound change, plus I share his views. Second, it would seem reasonable, taking into account the massive grass roots movement that supports him and the incredible amount of financing his campaign receives from ordinary people, especially through the Internet. Third, in these past elections he has proven to draw not only democrats, but independents and even a few republicans, poising to be a true unifier that goes beyond parties. Forth, it also seems there is enough support from the international community, as several countries (or country leaders) have openly stated that an Obama President would be beneficial to the US and its foreign relations, especially in the Middle East and Africa.

But, there are also other things to take into consideration account: by competing against the Democratic Party and it’s its candidate (Hillary), it would divide the electorates and give an edge to the Republican’s candidate (McCain), which could play against Obama. If he won, there would still play out 2 very different scenarios in the White House,: one of a true unifier, where he could be a president for the United States and not “blue states” or “red states”, (omit comma) by not having ties to a particular party. On the other hand, it could result in neither party supporting the president: the Republicans unifying behind their party, their ideals, vision and agenda, and a hurt and “betrayed” Democratic party not playing along friendly. The true losers obviously would be the people having a stifled government, more divided than before.

Back to today, where “hope” is still on everybody’s lips, hearts and mind.

So, instead of an independent Obama, let’s bring back the focus and hope for a unified Obama! I, for one, hope that Barack Obama wins the Democratic candidacy through a clear margin, backed by voters, pledged delegates and super delegates, to build on that momentum and take him all the way to the next presidency of the United States of America, by bringing democrats, independents and yes, hopefully a lot of republicans together to truly start working on the transcendent issues, not only surrounding the US, but also the rest of the world, stepping undeniably into an influential role that deeply heals and rebuilds all that has been polluted, damaged, waged, ignored.

Rebalancing where we put value, our values, I speak, not as a US citizen since I am a Mexican living in Spain, but as global citizen.

With hope, Gibran Armijo